Trump rejected a negotiated settlement with Iran on Wednesday, stating at a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas that "the deal isn't really something that I want to do," even as his special envoy to the Middle East continues diplomatic efforts.
The statement followed reports that the U.S. military and national security team have discussed possible large-scale military operations against Iran in coming weeks, according to NBC News citing a U.S. official and another person with knowledge of the discussions. Axios reported the operations could involve "massive bombing" of Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear targets, with timing potentially influenced by the midterm election calendar.
Trump's approval ratings have fallen to record lows amid public concern over elevated gasoline and diesel prices. The president earlier this week blamed confusion over Iran's leadership during talks, a claim Iranian officials disputed. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeli Baghaei countered that "the problem is actually the opposite," pointing to "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from U.S. officials."
Trump said Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, has been "doing very well" on negotiations. The president indicated Iran remains willing to offer significant concessions. However, his public dismissal of deal-making suggests military action has become the administration's preferred path.
Crude oil prices remain elevated despite recovering Middle East exports. Combined crude volumes from the Gulf excluding Iran, plus Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have returned to pre-conflict levels of approximately 18.5 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data. Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, forecast "slower, uneven normalisation" if conflict continues, with traffic recovery driven by operational adaptation rather than diplomatic resolution.