The New York Federal Reserve found that tariffs imposed during President Donald Trump's second term drove up prices on 67 categories of consumer goods by 2.9 percentage points as of February, according to a report from the central bank's research team.
Without those tariffs, prices for the products studied would have declined by roughly 1 percent, the researchers determined. The finding offers concrete evidence of tariffs' direct impact on consumer purchasing power, a question economists have debated since Trump made levies a centerpiece of his recent campaign and administration.
The New York Fed team, led by researchers Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein, calculated that each percentage point increase in average tariffs raised consumer goods prices by approximately 0.25 percent one year later. Price growth for the tracked goods peaked at the start of 2026, though elevated prices are expected to persist through 2027.
About two-thirds of the tariff-related price increase came directly from the levies themselves. The remaining third resulted from indirect effects, including costs absorbed by U.S. companies that use imported parts and materials in their products. "Tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest," the authors wrote.
Trump had argued that companies could absorb tariff costs rather than passing them to consumers. The New York Fed's analysis suggests otherwise. The researchers found that roughly 26 percent of tariff increases from the previous year translated into higher prices for shoppers.
The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs in February, triggering billions of dollars in refunds to retailers. The White House has signaled intent to pursue tariff policies through alternative measures. Current tariffs on imports from many countries now stand around 10 percent, substantially lower than earlier rounds.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the report.